Resilience in Bali's Accommodation Businesses Amidst COVID-19 Pandemic: A Survival Analysis
Abstract
This study aims to estimate the survival rate of the accommodation industry in Bali during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis using a dataset comprising 3,378 accommodations in Bali. Two distinct survival analysis methodologies were employed: the Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests. This study will also employ a qualitative analysis to examine the cultural characteristics of accommodation business resilience in Bali. Based on the patterns revealed in this research, hotels in operation for the last 10 years will have a 70% survival rate, in contrast with hotels in operation for over 40 years which have a 25% survival rate. This is especially the case of hotels that remain in operation during the COVID-19 pandemic. The initial 15-year period of business operations is identified as a critical juncture. Moreover, a notable discrepancies in survival rates was found across groups defined by specific variables, including the number of rooms, business scale, business typology, and location. Local culture is also discovered to be a crucial factor that enhances business adaptability and community ties, providing resilience.
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References
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Escribano-Navas, M., & Gemar, G. (2021). Gender and bankruptcy: A hotel survival econometric analysis. Sustainability (Switzerland), 13(12). https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126782
Gémar, G., Moniche, L., & Morales, A. J. (2016). Survival analysis of the Spanish hotel industry. Tourism Management, 54, 428–438. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2015.12.012
Gemar, G., Soler, I. P., & Guzman-Parra, V. F. (2019). Predicting bankruptcy in resort hotels: a survival analysis. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 31(4), 1546–1566. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCHM-10-2017-0640
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Henderson, J. C. (2007). Tourism Crises: Causes, Consequences and Management (1 ed.). Butterworth–Heinemann.
Holling, C. S. (1973). Resilience and Stability of Ecological System. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 4, 1–23.
Ihalauw, J. J., Sugiarto, Damiasih, Hendratono, T., Christiansen, R., & Herawan, T. (2023). Metode Penelitian Kualitatif untuk Pariwisata (1 ed.). Penerbit ANDI.
Ingram, P., & Baum, J. A. C. (1997). Chain affiliation and the failure of Manhattan hotels, 1898-1980. Administrative Science Quarterly, 42(1), 68–102. https://doi.org/10.2307/2393809
Ishwari, J., Wahyuni, S., Heruwato, I., Widjaja, A. W., & Kencana, E. N. (2019). Do Local Values Affect Performances? The Study of Tri Hita Karana Culture on Hotel Performance in Bali. Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, 72(Icbmr 2018), 196–203. https://doi.org/10.2991/icbmr-18.2019.33
Jenkins, S. P. (2004). Survival analysis (Nomor July). Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex. https://doi.org/10.1079/9781800620506.0016
Kleinbaum, D. G., & Klein, M. (2012). Survival Analysis A Self-Learning Text. In Springer (3 ed.). Springer.
Lado-Sestayo, R., Vivel-Búa, M., & Otero-González, L. (2016). Survival in the lodging sector: An analysis at the firm and location levels. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 59, 19–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2016.08.005
Lin, S. C., & Kim, Y. R. (2020). Diversification strategies and failure rates in the Texas lodging industry: Franchise versus company-operated hotels. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 88 (November 2019), 102525. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2020.102525
Melián-Alzola, L., Fernández-Monroy, M., & Hidalgo-Peñate, M. (2020). Hotels in contexts of uncertainty: Measuring organisational resilience. Tourism Management Perspectives, 36(October), 100747. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2020.100747
Morozov, M. M. (2020). Crisis Management in the Tourism Industry. Research result. Business and Service Technologies (Vol. 6, Nomor 4). https://doi.org/10.18413/2408-9346-2020-6-4-0-3
Ozdemir, O., Dogru, T., Kizildag, M., Mody, M., & Suess, C. (2021). Quantifying the economic impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. hotel industry: Examination of hotel segments and operational structures. Tourism Management Perspectives, 39, 100864. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.TMP.2021.100864
Pelaez-Verdet, A., & Loscertales-Sanchez, P. (2021). Key ratios for long-term prediction of hotel financial distress and corporate default: Survival analysis for an economic stagnation. Sustainability (Switzerland), 13(3), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13031473
Pennington-Gray, L., Cahyanto, I., Thapa, B., McLaughlin, E., Willming, C., & Blair, S. (2010). Destination Management Organizations and Tourism Crisis Management Plans in Florida. Tourism Review International, 13(4), 247–261. https://doi.org/10.3727/154427210x12741079930551
Pforr, C. (2006). Tourism in Post-Crisis is Tourism in Pre-Crisis: A Review of the Literature on Crisis Management in Tourism. In Working Paper Series 2006 School of Management Series.
Prayag, G. (2023). Tourism resilience in the ‘new normal’: Beyond jingle and jangle fallacies? Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 54(February), 513–520. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2023.02.006
Prayag, G., Jiang, Y., Chowdhury, M., Hossain, M. I., & Akter, N. (2023). Building Dynamic Capabilities and Organizational Resilience in Tourism Firms During COVID-19: A Staged Approach. Journal of Travel Research. https://doi.org/10.1177/00472875231164976
Ritchie, B. W., & Campiranon, K. (2015). Tourism Crisis and Disaster Management in the Asia-Pacific. CABI Series in Tourism Management Research.
Sugiarto, Damiasih, Hendratono, T., Ihalauw, J. J., & Herawan, T. (2023). Metode Penelitian Campuran Untuk Pariwisata (1 ed.). Penerbit ANDI.
Sukawati, C. G. M. P., & Jatra, I. M. (2015). Pengaruh Strategi Diferensiasi Terhadap Upaya Membangun Keunggulan Daya Saing Berkelanjutan Pada Hotel The Royal Pitamaha Ubud. E-Jurnal Manajemen Unud, 4(10), 3012–3044.
Tibay, V., Miller, J., Chang-Richards, A., Egbelakin, T., Seville, E., & Wilkinson, S. (2018). Business resilience: A study of Auckland hospitality sector. Procedia Engineering, 212(2017), 1217–1224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2018.01.157
Türkcan, K., & Erkuş-Öztürk, H. (2019). Survival of firms in crisis: Evidence from Antalya tourism city. Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research, 7(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.30519/ahtr.438189
Van Breda, A. D. (2018). A critical review of resilience theory and its relevance for social work. Social Work (South Africa), 54(1), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.15270/54-1-611
Vivel-Búa, M., Lado-Sestayo, R., & Otero-González, L. (2016). Impact of location on the probability of default in the Spanish lodging industry: A study of MSMEs. Tourism Economics, 22(3), 593–607. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2015.0461
Vivel-Búa, M., Lado-Sestayo, R., & Otero-González, L. (2019). Influence of firm characteristics and the environment on hotel survival across MSMES segments during the 2007–2015 period. Tourism Management, 75(May), 477–490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.06.015
Wirawan, P. E., Pujiastuti, S., Astuti, N. N. S., & Nuruddin. (2020). Strategi Bertahan Hotel di Bali Saat Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Kajian Bali (Journal of Bali Studies), 10(2), 579.
Yunita, P. I., Salim, U., Rofiaty, & Indrawati, N. K. (2024). Tri Hita Karana : Very Intangible Resources in Building Organizational Resilience Upon Crisis Times ( Study on local hotel operators in Bali ). International Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(September), 2245–2257.
Barreda, A. A., Kageyama, Y., Singh, D., & Zubieta, S. (2017). Hospitality Bankruptcy in the United States of America: A Multiple Discriminant Analysis-Logit Model Comparison. Journal of Quality Assurance in Hospitality and Tourism, 18(1), 86–106. https://doi.org/10.1080/1528008X.2016.1169471
BPS-Statistics Indonesia. (2022). Statistik Hotel dan Akomodasi Lainnya di Indonesia 2022.
BPS-Statistics Indonesia. (2023). Statistik Hotel dan Akomodasi Lainnya di Indonesia 2021 (Pekerja, Pendapatan dan Pengeluaran).
BPS-Statistics of Bali Province. (2022). Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Provinsi Bali Menurut Lapangan Usaha (Gross Regional Domestic Product of Bali Province by Industry) 2017 - 2021. In Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Bali (BPS-Statistics of Bali Province).
BPS-Statistics of Bali Province. (2024a). Number of Classified Hotels by Class and Regency/Municipality in Bali Province, 2000-2023. https://bali.bps.go.id/indicator/16/222/1/number-of-classified-hotel-by-class-and-regency-municipality-in-bali-province.html
BPS-Statistics of Bali Province. (2024b). Number of Non Classified Hotel and Other Accomodations by Room Group and Regency/Municipality in Bali Province 2020-2022. https://bali.bps.go.id/indicator/16/311/1/number-of-non-classified-hotel-and-other-accomodations-by-room-group-and-regency-municipality-in-bali-province.html
BPS-Statistics of Bali Province. (2025). Distribution of Yearly GRDP of Bali Province at Current Market Prices By Industry (Percent), 2022-2024. https://bali.bps.go.id/en/statistics-table/2/MzY4IzI=/distribusi-pdrb-tahunan-provinsi-bali-atas-dasar-harga-berlaku-menurut-lapangan-usaha--persen-.html
Buhalis, D., & Costa, C. (2006). Tourism Management Dynamics: Trends, Management and Tools (1 ed.). Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann. https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-7506-6378-6.50036-6
Burnard, K., Bhamra, R., & Tsinopoulos, C. (2018). Building Organisational Resilience: Four Configurations (Vol. 65, Nomor 3).
Caires, F. B., Reis, H., & Rodrigues, P. M. M. (2023). Survival of the fittest: tourism exposure and firm survival. Applied Economics, 55(60), 7150–7177. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2023.2208858
Charina, A., Kurnia, G., Mulyana, A., & Mizuno, K. (2022). The Impacts of Traditional Culture on Small Industries Longevity and Sustainability: A Case on Sundanese in Indonesia. Sustainability (Switzerland), 14(21). https://doi.org/10.3390/su142114445
Crespí-Cladera, R., Martín-Oliver, A., & Pascual-Fuster, B. (2021). Financial distress in the hospitality industry during the Covid-19 disaster. Tourism Management, 85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2021.104301
Cvelbar, L. K., & Dwyer, L. (2013). An importance-performance analysis of sustainability factors for long-term strategy planning in Slovenian hotels. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 21(3), 487–504. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2012.713965
Dahles, H., Prabawa, T. S., & Koning, J. (2020). Local tourism businesses in Indonesia: A pathway to crisis-resilient development? Austrian Journal of South-East Asian Studies, 13(1), 17–33. https://doi.org/10.14764/10.ASEAS-0027
Dahles, H., & Susilowati, T. P. (2015). Business resilience in times of growth and crisis. Annals of Tourism Research, 51, 34–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2015.01.002
Duartha, I. W., Putra, I. N. D., Dwijendra, N. K. A., & Antara, I. K. (2020). The Effectiveness of Strategic Management and Leadership Style on Performance of Local Hotel Operators in Managing Hotel Unit Businesses in Ubud Bali, Indonesia. Journal of Social and Political Sciences, 3(3). https://doi.org/10.31014/aior.1991.03.03.212
Escribano-Navas, M., & Gemar, G. (2021). Gender and bankruptcy: A hotel survival econometric analysis. Sustainability (Switzerland), 13(12). https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126782
Gémar, G., Moniche, L., & Morales, A. J. (2016). Survival analysis of the Spanish hotel industry. Tourism Management, 54, 428–438. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2015.12.012
Gemar, G., Soler, I. P., & Guzman-Parra, V. F. (2019). Predicting bankruptcy in resort hotels: a survival analysis. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 31(4), 1546–1566. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCHM-10-2017-0640
Glaesser, D. (2003). Crisis Management in the Tourism Industry (1 ed.). Butterworth-Heinemann.
Henderson, J. C. (2007). Tourism Crises: Causes, Consequences and Management (1 ed.). Butterworth–Heinemann.
Holling, C. S. (1973). Resilience and Stability of Ecological System. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 4, 1–23.
Ihalauw, J. J., Sugiarto, Damiasih, Hendratono, T., Christiansen, R., & Herawan, T. (2023). Metode Penelitian Kualitatif untuk Pariwisata (1 ed.). Penerbit ANDI.
Ingram, P., & Baum, J. A. C. (1997). Chain affiliation and the failure of Manhattan hotels, 1898-1980. Administrative Science Quarterly, 42(1), 68–102. https://doi.org/10.2307/2393809
Ishwari, J., Wahyuni, S., Heruwato, I., Widjaja, A. W., & Kencana, E. N. (2019). Do Local Values Affect Performances? The Study of Tri Hita Karana Culture on Hotel Performance in Bali. Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, 72(Icbmr 2018), 196–203. https://doi.org/10.2991/icbmr-18.2019.33
Jenkins, S. P. (2004). Survival analysis (Nomor July). Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex. https://doi.org/10.1079/9781800620506.0016
Kleinbaum, D. G., & Klein, M. (2012). Survival Analysis A Self-Learning Text. In Springer (3 ed.). Springer.
Lado-Sestayo, R., Vivel-Búa, M., & Otero-González, L. (2016). Survival in the lodging sector: An analysis at the firm and location levels. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 59, 19–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2016.08.005
Lin, S. C., & Kim, Y. R. (2020). Diversification strategies and failure rates in the Texas lodging industry: Franchise versus company-operated hotels. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 88 (November 2019), 102525. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2020.102525
Melián-Alzola, L., Fernández-Monroy, M., & Hidalgo-Peñate, M. (2020). Hotels in contexts of uncertainty: Measuring organisational resilience. Tourism Management Perspectives, 36(October), 100747. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2020.100747
Morozov, M. M. (2020). Crisis Management in the Tourism Industry. Research result. Business and Service Technologies (Vol. 6, Nomor 4). https://doi.org/10.18413/2408-9346-2020-6-4-0-3
Ozdemir, O., Dogru, T., Kizildag, M., Mody, M., & Suess, C. (2021). Quantifying the economic impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. hotel industry: Examination of hotel segments and operational structures. Tourism Management Perspectives, 39, 100864. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.TMP.2021.100864
Pelaez-Verdet, A., & Loscertales-Sanchez, P. (2021). Key ratios for long-term prediction of hotel financial distress and corporate default: Survival analysis for an economic stagnation. Sustainability (Switzerland), 13(3), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13031473
Pennington-Gray, L., Cahyanto, I., Thapa, B., McLaughlin, E., Willming, C., & Blair, S. (2010). Destination Management Organizations and Tourism Crisis Management Plans in Florida. Tourism Review International, 13(4), 247–261. https://doi.org/10.3727/154427210x12741079930551
Pforr, C. (2006). Tourism in Post-Crisis is Tourism in Pre-Crisis: A Review of the Literature on Crisis Management in Tourism. In Working Paper Series 2006 School of Management Series.
Prayag, G. (2023). Tourism resilience in the ‘new normal’: Beyond jingle and jangle fallacies? Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 54(February), 513–520. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2023.02.006
Prayag, G., Jiang, Y., Chowdhury, M., Hossain, M. I., & Akter, N. (2023). Building Dynamic Capabilities and Organizational Resilience in Tourism Firms During COVID-19: A Staged Approach. Journal of Travel Research. https://doi.org/10.1177/00472875231164976
Ritchie, B. W., & Campiranon, K. (2015). Tourism Crisis and Disaster Management in the Asia-Pacific. CABI Series in Tourism Management Research.
Sugiarto, Damiasih, Hendratono, T., Ihalauw, J. J., & Herawan, T. (2023). Metode Penelitian Campuran Untuk Pariwisata (1 ed.). Penerbit ANDI.
Sukawati, C. G. M. P., & Jatra, I. M. (2015). Pengaruh Strategi Diferensiasi Terhadap Upaya Membangun Keunggulan Daya Saing Berkelanjutan Pada Hotel The Royal Pitamaha Ubud. E-Jurnal Manajemen Unud, 4(10), 3012–3044.
Tibay, V., Miller, J., Chang-Richards, A., Egbelakin, T., Seville, E., & Wilkinson, S. (2018). Business resilience: A study of Auckland hospitality sector. Procedia Engineering, 212(2017), 1217–1224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2018.01.157
Türkcan, K., & Erkuş-Öztürk, H. (2019). Survival of firms in crisis: Evidence from Antalya tourism city. Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research, 7(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.30519/ahtr.438189
Van Breda, A. D. (2018). A critical review of resilience theory and its relevance for social work. Social Work (South Africa), 54(1), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.15270/54-1-611
Vivel-Búa, M., Lado-Sestayo, R., & Otero-González, L. (2016). Impact of location on the probability of default in the Spanish lodging industry: A study of MSMEs. Tourism Economics, 22(3), 593–607. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2015.0461
Vivel-Búa, M., Lado-Sestayo, R., & Otero-González, L. (2019). Influence of firm characteristics and the environment on hotel survival across MSMES segments during the 2007–2015 period. Tourism Management, 75(May), 477–490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.06.015
Wirawan, P. E., Pujiastuti, S., Astuti, N. N. S., & Nuruddin. (2020). Strategi Bertahan Hotel di Bali Saat Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Kajian Bali (Journal of Bali Studies), 10(2), 579.
Yunita, P. I., Salim, U., Rofiaty, & Indrawati, N. K. (2024). Tri Hita Karana : Very Intangible Resources in Building Organizational Resilience Upon Crisis Times ( Study on local hotel operators in Bali ). International Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(September), 2245–2257.
Published
2025-04-07
How to Cite
DARIWARDANI, Ni Made Inna et al.
Resilience in Bali's Accommodation Businesses Amidst COVID-19 Pandemic: A Survival Analysis.
Jurnal Kajian Bali (Journal of Bali Studies), [S.l.], v. 15, n. 1, p. 173-203, apr. 2025.
ISSN 2580-0698.
Available at: <https://ojs.unud.ac.id./index.php/kajianbali/article/view/123990>. Date accessed: 20 apr. 2025.
doi: https://doi.org/10.24843/JKB.2025.v15.i01.p07.
Section
Articles
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
