Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Atas Pemilu Serentak Tahun 2024
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https://doi.org/10.24843/EJA.2024.v34.i12.p02
Abstrak
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis reaksi pasar modal Indonesia atas peristwa pemilihan umum serentak tahun 2024. Pengukuran dilakukan pada 764 sampel perusahaan. Aspek pengukuran menggunakan abnormal return serta cumulative abnormal return. Melalui metode analisis yang digunakan meliputi uji statistic deskriptif, uji one sample t-test, serta uji paired t-test. Hasil pengujian atas hipotesis pertama menunjukan adanya abnormal return yang signifikan pada hari pertama serta hari ketiga setelah pemilihan umum serentak tahun 2024 dan pada hipotesis kedua menunjukan perbedaan cumulative abnormal return yang signifikan antara sebelum dan sesudah pemilihan umum serentak tahun 2024. Atas hasil uji yang ada menunjukan bahwa peristiwa pemilhan umum serentak tahun 2024 memiliki kandungan informasi yang membentuk reaksi pada pasar modal Indonesia.
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Referensi
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Apriyanto, J., Mulyantini, S., & Nurmatias, N. (2021). Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Terhadap Pemilihan Presiden Amerika Serikat Tahun 2020. JIMFE (Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Fakultas Ekonomi), 7(2), 189–202. https://doi.org/10.34203/jimfe.v7i2.3714
Argantha, A., & Sudirman, N. (2020). Stock Market Reaction to the Event of Indonesia’s General Election Events in 2019. American Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research (AJHSSR), 4(1), 202–208. www.ajhssr.com
Aulia, N., & Amanah, H. (2020). Reaksi Pasar Modal Pada Peristiwa Pemilu Presiden Indonesia Tahun 2019 (Studi Pada Sub Sektor Advertising, Printing, Dan Media Yang Listing Di BEI). Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB, 9(1).
Dewi, R., & Wiksuana, B. (2022). Reaksi Pasar Terhadap Kemenangan Joe Biden Dalam Pemilihan Umum Presiden Amerika Serikat Tahun 2020 di Emerging Market. E-Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Udayana, 11(8), 947–958. https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/EEB/index
Dewi, R., Wirama, G., & Rasmini, K. (2017). Reaksi Pasar Atas Pengumuman Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi X Tentang Daftar Negatif Investasi. Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Dan Bisnis, 12(2), 104–114. https://doi.org/10.24843/jiab.2017.v12.i01.p05
Diaconaşu, D., Mehdian, S., & Stoica, O. (2023). The Global Stock Market Reactions to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. SAGE Open, 13(2), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440231181352
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Foster, S. M. (1989). Analysis of spatial patterns in buildings (access analysis) as an insight into social structure: examples from the Scottish Atlantic Iron Age. Antiquity, 63(238), 40–50. http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/49716
Hartono, J. (2017). Teori Portofolio dan Analisis Investasi (BPFE, Ed.; 11th ed., Vol. 1).
Kemuning, D., Prianthara, T., & Wistawan, P. (2021). Reaksi Pasar terhadap Peristiwa Politik 2019 di Indonesia. E-Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Udayana, 31(7), 1746–1759. https://doi.org/10.24843/eja.2021.v31.i07.p11
Lesmana, S., & Sumani, S. (2023). Abnormal Return Analysis Before and After General Election in Asia. The Winners, 23(2), 113–119. https://doi.org/10.21512/tw.v23i2.7083
Levine, R., & Zervos, S. (1998). Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth. The American Economic Review, 88(3), 537–558.
Liew, V. K. Sen, & Rowland, R. (2016). The effect of Malaysia general election on stock market returns. SpringerPlus, 5(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-3648-5
Luhur, S. (2010). Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Seputar Pemilihan Umum 8 Juli 2024 Pada Saham LQ-45. Jurnal Keuangan Dan Perbankan, 14(2), 249–262. https://doi.org/10.26905/jkdp.v14i2.971
Meylita, H., & Yasa, W. (2015). Perbedaan Reaksi Pasar Atas Pengumuman Pemecahan Saham Pada LQ45 Dan Non LQ45. Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Dan Bisnis, 10(2), 96–104. https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/jiab/article/view/17304
Murtaza, H., Abrar, M., & Ali, R. (2015). Impact of Major Political Events on Stock Market Returns of Pakistan. Public Policy and Administration Research, 5(4), 69–83. www.iiste.org
Muzzammil, D., & Rizki, A. (2020). Capital market reaction: Before and after the 2019 presidential and legislative general elections in Indonesia. Cuadernos de Economia, 43, 419–427. https://doi.org/10.32826/cude.v4i123.404
Nasir, A., Gherghina, Ștefan C., Mata, M. N., Khan, K. I., Mata, P. N., & Ferrão, J. A. (2022). Testing Stock Market Efficiency from Spillover Effect of Panama Leaks. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(2), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15020079
Nida, P., Yoga, P., & Adityawarman, G. (2020). Analisis Reaksi Pasar Modal Terhadap Peristiwa Pemilu Serentak Tahun 2019. Jurnal Lingkungan & Pembangunan, 4(1), 64–73. https://ejournal.warmadewa.ac.id/index.php/wicaksana
Niederhoffer, V. (1971). The Analysis of World Events and Stock Prices. The Journal of Business, 44(2), 193–219.
Pameswari, N., & Wirakusuma, G. (2018). Analisis Reaksi Pasar Modal Pada Peristiwa Pemilihan Gubernur Dki Jakarta Tahun 2017. E-Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Udayana, 22(2), 944–975. https://doi.org/10.24843/eja.2018.v22.i02.p05
Pastika, A., & Widanaputra, P. (2019). Analisis Reaksi Pasar Terhadap Pengumuman Dividen Saham. E-Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Udayana, 27(1), 822–846. https://doi.org/10.24843/eja.2019.v27.i01.p30
Pratama, D., Damayanthi, E., Dharmadiaksa, B., & Suardana, A. (2020). Capital Market Reaction to the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election Announcement Results by the General Election Commission and Constitutional Court Decision. American Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research (AJHSSR), 4(1), 286–291. www.ajhssr.com
Pujaastawan, G., & Wiksuana, B. (2020). Market Reaction to The Announcement of General Election Result of The President and Vice President of Indonesia in 2019 (Study on LQ 45 Stock Index on The Indonesia Stock Exchange). European Journal of Business and Management, 12(3), 120–123. https://doi.org/10.7176/ejbm/12-3-15
Puspita, A., & Damayanti. (2023). Reaksi Pasar Modal Terhadap Pemilihan Umum Serentak Tanggal 17 April 2019 Di Indonesia (Studi Kasus Perusahaan Property Dan Real Estate Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia). Jurnal Ilmiah Fokus Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis & Akuntansi (EMBA), 1(3), 356–362. ejournal.stiepena.ac.id/index.php/fokusemba
Putri, N., Sadalia, I., & Irawati, N. (2020). Analysis of LQ45 Stock Market Index Reaction on Presidential Election 2019. International Journal of Research and Review, 7(3), 463–472.
Roviah, S., & Ariyanto, D. (2018). Reaksi Pasar Terhadap Reentry Perusahaan Pada Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia. E-Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Udayana, 25(1), 83–108. https://doi.org/10.24843/eja.2018.v25.i01.p04
Saraswati, W., & Mustanda, K. (2018). Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Terhadap Peristiwa Pengumuman Hasil Perhitungan Suara Pemilihan Umum dan Pelantikan Presiden Amerika Serikat. E-Jurnal Manajemen Unud, 7(6), 2971–2998. https://doi.org/10.24843/EJMUNUD.2018.v7.i06.p5
Setiawan, Arief, F., & Asri, M. (1998). Reaksi pasar modal Indonesia terhadap peristiwa politik dalam negeri (Event study pada peristiwa 27 Juli 1996). Jurnal I-Lib UGM.
Setiawan, R., & Izzatin, N. (2020). Reaksi Pasar Terhadap Hasil Quick Count Pemilu Presiden Indonesia 2019 (Studi Pada Saham Indeks LQ-45). Jurnla Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, Dan Akuntansi), 4(1), 288–296.
Sihotang, M., & Mekel, A. (2015). Reaksi Pasar Modal Terhadap Pemilihan Umum Presiden Tanggal 9 Juli 2014 Di Indonesia (Studi Di Perusahaan Konstruksi, Infrastruktur Dan Utilitas Pada BEI, Jakarta). Jurnal EMBA: Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 3(1), 951–960.
Spence, M. (2002). Signaling in Retrospect and the Informational Structure of Markets. American Economic Review, 93(3), 434–459.
Sugiyono. (2018). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif Kualitatif dan R&D (Sutopo, Ed.; Kesatu, Vol. 1). Alfabeta.
Suleman, M. T. (2012). Stock Market Reaction to Good and Bad Political News. Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.5296/ajfa.v4i1.1705
Sultonov, M., & Jehan, S. N. (2018). Dynamic Linkages between Japan’s Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets: Response to the Brexit Referendum and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 11(3), 34. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm11030034
Ahmed, F., Bahoo, S., Aslam, S., & Qureshi, A. (2020). Meta-Analysis On American Presidential Election-2016 And American Stock Market. Studies of Applied Economics, 38(1), 1–7. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Apriyanto, J., Mulyantini, S., & Nurmatias, N. (2021). Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Terhadap Pemilihan Presiden Amerika Serikat Tahun 2020. JIMFE (Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Fakultas Ekonomi), 7(2), 189–202. https://doi.org/10.34203/jimfe.v7i2.3714
Argantha, A., & Sudirman, N. (2020). Stock Market Reaction to the Event of Indonesia’s General Election Events in 2019. American Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research (AJHSSR), 4(1), 202–208. www.ajhssr.com
Aulia, N., & Amanah, H. (2020). Reaksi Pasar Modal Pada Peristiwa Pemilu Presiden Indonesia Tahun 2019 (Studi Pada Sub Sektor Advertising, Printing, Dan Media Yang Listing Di BEI). Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB, 9(1).
Dewi, R., & Wiksuana, B. (2022). Reaksi Pasar Terhadap Kemenangan Joe Biden Dalam Pemilihan Umum Presiden Amerika Serikat Tahun 2020 di Emerging Market. E-Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Udayana, 11(8), 947–958. https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/EEB/index
Dewi, R., Wirama, G., & Rasmini, K. (2017). Reaksi Pasar Atas Pengumuman Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi X Tentang Daftar Negatif Investasi. Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Dan Bisnis, 12(2), 104–114. https://doi.org/10.24843/jiab.2017.v12.i01.p05
Diaconaşu, D., Mehdian, S., & Stoica, O. (2023). The Global Stock Market Reactions to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. SAGE Open, 13(2), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440231181352
Diniar, A. H., & Kiryanto. (2015). Jurnal Akuntansi Indonesia 97 Analisis Dampak Pemilu Presiden Jokowi Terhadap Return Saham Ayudia Hanung Diniar & Kiryanto Analisis Dampak Pemilu Presiden Jokowi Terhadap Return Saham (Studi Kasus Saham Lq-45 Di Bursa Efek Indonesia). Jurnal Akuntansi Indonesia , 4(2), 97–108. http://dx.doi.org/10.30659/jai.4.2.97-108
Foster, S. M. (1989). Analysis of spatial patterns in buildings (access analysis) as an insight into social structure: examples from the Scottish Atlantic Iron Age. Antiquity, 63(238), 40–50. http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/49716
Hartono, J. (2017). Teori Portofolio dan Analisis Investasi (BPFE, Ed.; 11th ed., Vol. 1).
Kemuning, D., Prianthara, T., & Wistawan, P. (2021). Reaksi Pasar terhadap Peristiwa Politik 2019 di Indonesia. E-Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Udayana, 31(7), 1746–1759. https://doi.org/10.24843/eja.2021.v31.i07.p11
Lesmana, S., & Sumani, S. (2023). Abnormal Return Analysis Before and After General Election in Asia. The Winners, 23(2), 113–119. https://doi.org/10.21512/tw.v23i2.7083
Levine, R., & Zervos, S. (1998). Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth. The American Economic Review, 88(3), 537–558.
Liew, V. K. Sen, & Rowland, R. (2016). The effect of Malaysia general election on stock market returns. SpringerPlus, 5(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-3648-5
Luhur, S. (2010). Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Seputar Pemilihan Umum 8 Juli 2024 Pada Saham LQ-45. Jurnal Keuangan Dan Perbankan, 14(2), 249–262. https://doi.org/10.26905/jkdp.v14i2.971
Meylita, H., & Yasa, W. (2015). Perbedaan Reaksi Pasar Atas Pengumuman Pemecahan Saham Pada LQ45 Dan Non LQ45. Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Dan Bisnis, 10(2), 96–104. https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/jiab/article/view/17304
Murtaza, H., Abrar, M., & Ali, R. (2015). Impact of Major Political Events on Stock Market Returns of Pakistan. Public Policy and Administration Research, 5(4), 69–83. www.iiste.org
Muzzammil, D., & Rizki, A. (2020). Capital market reaction: Before and after the 2019 presidential and legislative general elections in Indonesia. Cuadernos de Economia, 43, 419–427. https://doi.org/10.32826/cude.v4i123.404
Nasir, A., Gherghina, Ștefan C., Mata, M. N., Khan, K. I., Mata, P. N., & Ferrão, J. A. (2022). Testing Stock Market Efficiency from Spillover Effect of Panama Leaks. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(2), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15020079
Nida, P., Yoga, P., & Adityawarman, G. (2020). Analisis Reaksi Pasar Modal Terhadap Peristiwa Pemilu Serentak Tahun 2019. Jurnal Lingkungan & Pembangunan, 4(1), 64–73. https://ejournal.warmadewa.ac.id/index.php/wicaksana
Niederhoffer, V. (1971). The Analysis of World Events and Stock Prices. The Journal of Business, 44(2), 193–219.
Pameswari, N., & Wirakusuma, G. (2018). Analisis Reaksi Pasar Modal Pada Peristiwa Pemilihan Gubernur Dki Jakarta Tahun 2017. E-Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Udayana, 22(2), 944–975. https://doi.org/10.24843/eja.2018.v22.i02.p05
Pastika, A., & Widanaputra, P. (2019). Analisis Reaksi Pasar Terhadap Pengumuman Dividen Saham. E-Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Udayana, 27(1), 822–846. https://doi.org/10.24843/eja.2019.v27.i01.p30
Pratama, D., Damayanthi, E., Dharmadiaksa, B., & Suardana, A. (2020). Capital Market Reaction to the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election Announcement Results by the General Election Commission and Constitutional Court Decision. American Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research (AJHSSR), 4(1), 286–291. www.ajhssr.com
Pujaastawan, G., & Wiksuana, B. (2020). Market Reaction to The Announcement of General Election Result of The President and Vice President of Indonesia in 2019 (Study on LQ 45 Stock Index on The Indonesia Stock Exchange). European Journal of Business and Management, 12(3), 120–123. https://doi.org/10.7176/ejbm/12-3-15
Puspita, A., & Damayanti. (2023). Reaksi Pasar Modal Terhadap Pemilihan Umum Serentak Tanggal 17 April 2019 Di Indonesia (Studi Kasus Perusahaan Property Dan Real Estate Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia). Jurnal Ilmiah Fokus Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis & Akuntansi (EMBA), 1(3), 356–362. ejournal.stiepena.ac.id/index.php/fokusemba
Putri, N., Sadalia, I., & Irawati, N. (2020). Analysis of LQ45 Stock Market Index Reaction on Presidential Election 2019. International Journal of Research and Review, 7(3), 463–472.
Roviah, S., & Ariyanto, D. (2018). Reaksi Pasar Terhadap Reentry Perusahaan Pada Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia. E-Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Udayana, 25(1), 83–108. https://doi.org/10.24843/eja.2018.v25.i01.p04
Saraswati, W., & Mustanda, K. (2018). Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Terhadap Peristiwa Pengumuman Hasil Perhitungan Suara Pemilihan Umum dan Pelantikan Presiden Amerika Serikat. E-Jurnal Manajemen Unud, 7(6), 2971–2998. https://doi.org/10.24843/EJMUNUD.2018.v7.i06.p5
Setiawan, Arief, F., & Asri, M. (1998). Reaksi pasar modal Indonesia terhadap peristiwa politik dalam negeri (Event study pada peristiwa 27 Juli 1996). Jurnal I-Lib UGM.
Setiawan, R., & Izzatin, N. (2020). Reaksi Pasar Terhadap Hasil Quick Count Pemilu Presiden Indonesia 2019 (Studi Pada Saham Indeks LQ-45). Jurnla Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, Dan Akuntansi), 4(1), 288–296.
Sihotang, M., & Mekel, A. (2015). Reaksi Pasar Modal Terhadap Pemilihan Umum Presiden Tanggal 9 Juli 2014 Di Indonesia (Studi Di Perusahaan Konstruksi, Infrastruktur Dan Utilitas Pada BEI, Jakarta). Jurnal EMBA: Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 3(1), 951–960.
Spence, M. (2002). Signaling in Retrospect and the Informational Structure of Markets. American Economic Review, 93(3), 434–459.
Sugiyono. (2018). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif Kualitatif dan R&D (Sutopo, Ed.; Kesatu, Vol. 1). Alfabeta.
Suleman, M. T. (2012). Stock Market Reaction to Good and Bad Political News. Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.5296/ajfa.v4i1.1705
Sultonov, M., & Jehan, S. N. (2018). Dynamic Linkages between Japan’s Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets: Response to the Brexit Referendum and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 11(3), 34. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm11030034
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2024-12-11
##submission.howToCite##
PUTRA, Pande Gede Bagus Armana; SUKARTHA, P. Dyan Yaniartha.
Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Atas Pemilu Serentak Tahun 2024.
E-Jurnal Akuntansi, [S.l.], v. 34, n. 12, dec. 2024.
ISSN 2302-8556.
Tersedia pada: <https://ojs.unud.ac.id./index.php/akuntansi/article/view/118340>. Tanggal Akses: 20 apr. 2025
doi: https://doi.org/10.24843/EJA.2024.v34.i12.p02.
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